Five Fall Festival Films to Look Out for in 2026

With fall around the corner, I'm back this year to give my five fall festival films to look out for!

Unfortunately, last year I somehow missed on four of my five predictions. With Hamnet being the lone film that actually landed, I completely whiffed on my other four selections: Sentimental Value was… fine; Frankenstein, while visually stunning, felt narratively bloated; I picked the wrong brother with Benny Safdie's The Smashing Machine over Josh Safdie's Marty Supreme (as detailed in my Hyperreal Film Journal review of the latter); and Jay Kelly was essentially George Clooney kissing his own ass for two hours. All this while I could have chosen Best Picture nominee Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugonia, Oscar-snubbed Park Chan-wook's No Other Choice, or indie darling Curry Barker's Obsession.

So this year, I am doing more research and adding another festival to the selection pool. Along with the Venice International Film Festival (Venice) from Sept. 2 to Sept. 12, the Toronto International Film Festival (TIFF) from Sept. 10 to Sept. 20, and the New York Film Festival (NYFF) from Sept. 25 to Oct. 12, I will be raising the altitude by adding the Telluride Film Festival (Telluride) from Sept. 4 to Sept. 7.

There is, of course, the counter-argument: do film festivals even matter when predicting the Oscars? After all, only one of the last five Best Picture winners had a fall festival launch, Anora. Combine that with early-year arrivals like The Odyssey, Project Hail Mary, and The Invite, plus contenders like Digger and Dune: Part Three bypassing the fall circuit altogether, and it's tempting to say these festivals don't carry the weight they used to.

But while that might point to evolving studio release strategies, it's far from bucking the broader historical trend: 15 of the last 20 Best Picture winners premiered at a fall festival, and seven of last year's ten Best Picture nominees came through the fall circuit.

Backed by the momentum already building out of Cannes and Sundance, the fall lineup looks poised to cap off another stacked year in cinema. So, for the second year in a row, here are my five fall festival films to look out for at Venice, Telluride, TIFF, and NYFF—and how I think they will play in this year's Oscars race!

1. Primetime (Lance Oppenheim)

If there is any actor having a career year, it's Robert Pattinson. Between starring in The Drama and The Odyssey, with Dune: Part Three on the horizon, Pattinson is entering the fall festival season headlining one of the calendar's most intriguing titles: Primetime. While it might not boast traditional Oscar pedigree, it is surprisingly the movie I'm most excited for on this fall festival circuit because of the subject matter—especially since I'll be catching it locally at Austin's Fantastic Fest.

Premiering at Venice, the film is a pseudo-biopic about Chris Hansen circa 2006 during the peak of his show To Catch a Predator on Dateline NBC. I'll readily admit that Hansen's sting operations were a guilty pleasure of mine growing up, but they were a far cry from ethical journalism. Primetime dives headfirst into that murky reality, critiquing the show's unhinged sensationalism and shattered ethical boundaries. The script draws directly from Luke Dittrich's 2007 Esquire investigation into how Hansen and NBC's ratings obsession drove the botched sting on local Texas assistant district attorney Bill Conradt, which culminated in Conradt's suicide and the show's eventual cancellation.

This psychological dissection makes the film feel tonally similar to Nightcrawler, a film about the collapse of the journalistic line between sensationalism and exploitation. It has even rattledthe real-life Chris Hansen, who publicly denounced the movie and bought up pre-roll ad slots on trailers for the film to promote his true-crime streaming service, TruBlu.

While I don't necessarily expect Primetime to be A24's main play, especially with The Invite and two other contenders on this list higher in their priority queue, I feel Robert Pattinson will be a contender for Best Actor. Given Pattinson's hot streak and the fact that Primetime walked away from Venice with a pristine 100% Rotten Tomatoes score, the film has the juice to sustain a campaign. We saw a similar dynamic with Uncut Gems and Adam Sandler's overlooked performance; let's see if A24 learned its lesson and can push Pattinson onto the final ballot. But if A24 neglects Primetime in favor of its other players, Lance Oppenheim will still be getting his recognition for the next film on this list.

Director: Lance Oppenheim
Writer: Ajon Singh
Cast: Robert Pattinson, Merritt Wever, Skyler Gisondo, Phoebe Bridgers, Anna Faris
Major Fall Festivals: Venice (World Premiere)
Release Date: September 25, 2026
US Distributor: A24

2. You Can See Everything (Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim)

Lance Oppenheim is generating buzz for not one, but two films this fall festival season, as he and Nathan Fielder stunned festival-goers at Telluride with a secret screening of their new documentary: You Can See Everything. While documentaries aren't typically my primary wheelhouse, this project has been turning so many heads that it's impossible to look away.

The documentary captures Fielder and Oppenheim following the life of Elizabeth Holmes, the founder and CEO of Theranos, in the 30 days before she was sent to prison for defrauding her investors. The film then chronicles the next three years of Holmes's life in prison, taking twists and turns that early viewers have described as "shocking."

After flying completely under the radar prior to its announcement, the film has taken the internet by storm, with its first teaser racking up five million views in three days. The trailer has since been chopped into a meme format across social media. That eerie one-minute preview sets the tone for the entire three-hour documentary, which some are already crowning one of the cinematic achievements of the year. It has garnered so much attention that the New York Film Festival quickly added it as a festival spotlight.On the awards front, You Can See Everything is already being framed as a runaway frontrunner for Best Documentary Feature. But the bigger story is that some industry insiders believe it could become the first documentary in Academy history to land a Best Picture nomination. And while that ambition might sound delusional to skeptics, it makes complete sense to me: after all, Nathan Fielder graduated from one of Canada's top business schools with really good grades. A Best Picture nod would be a win in its own right, but A24 will most likely prioritize the next film as its main player this season.

Director: Nathan Fielder, Lance Oppenheim
Major Fall Festivals: Telluride (World Premiere), NYFF
Release Date: October 16, 2026
US Distributor: A24

3. The Debut (Jesse Eisenberg)

With an embarrassment of riches to choose from, I believe A24 is going to prioritize Jesse Eisenberg's The Debut as its leading contender. By launching the film with a world premiere at Telluride followed by marquee stops at TIFF and NYFF, the studio is making it clear that The Debut will be the centerpiece of its awards campaign this season.

The Debut stars Julianne Moore as a shy, unassuming New Jersey housewife who unexpectedly lands a supporting role in a local community theater production. However, what begins as a creative outlet quickly curdles into an obsession when she falls under the spell of the theater's enigmatic, iron-fisted director, played by Paul Giamatti. As he pushes her further into character, her quiet domestic life completely unravels as she loses herself to the performance.

Early reviews out of Telluride, including Variety, have described the film as Black Swan and Whiplash for middle-aged moms. That comparison alone had me completely hooked, as the "obsessed artist" subgenre is easily one of my all-time favorite tropes in cinema.

On the awards front, The Debut is checking every single box required to run the table. Oscar winner Julianne Moore's performance is already being hailed as a career best—bolstered by a mid-movie ovation during the film's premiere at Telluride. Pairing her with Paul Giamatti, who is back in the Academy's graces after receiving a Best Actor nomination for his performance in The Holdovers, gives A24 a strong 1-2 punch in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor. Behind the camera, Jesse Eisenberg is no stranger to the campaign circuit; having earned nominations as both an actor (The Social Network) and a screenwriter (A Real Pain), he understands the politicallandscape of awards season better than most up-and-coming directors. Factor in glowing critical praise and a competitive December release date, The Debut looks like A24's unquestioned crown jewel this season.

Director: Jesse Eisenberg
Writer: Jesse Eisenberg
Cast: Julianne Moore, Paul Giamatti, Jesse Eisenberg, Halle Bailey, Havana Rose Liu
Major Fall Festivals: Telluride (World Premiere), TIFF, NYFF
Release Date: December 11, 2026
US Distributor: A24

4. La bola negra (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi)

After igniting a ferocious bidding war at the Cannes Film Festival, La bola negra (The Black Ball) was immediately solidified as a major player this awards season, with Netflix emerging victorious to steer the campaign. And the streaming giant is not playing around: alongside prestige berths at Telluride and TIFF, Netflix has committed to a record-breaking 47-day theatrical window for the film. Furthermore, La bola negra took home TIFF's prestigious People's Choice Award, a key Oscar indicator: 16 of the past 20 winners scored Best Picture nominations, with five going on to win. Between that unprecedented rollout and the rapturousresponse it has already garnered as a monumental queer epic, La bola negra is shaping up to be one of the season's fiercest contenders.

The film takes its name and inspiration from La bola negra, an unfinished Federico García Lorca work that the poet abandoned after just four pages before his murder by Nationalist forces in 1936. Working from that fragment, along with Alberto Conejero's play La piedra oscura, Los Javis (Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi) have built a sweeping triptych that spans 1932, 1937, and 2017, tracing three interconnected gay men across nearly a century of Spanish history.

What makes this especially compelling is that Netflix's slate is noticeably lighter than in years past. With only David Fincher's The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Danny Boyle's Ink, and Lee Chang-dong's Possible Love realistically competing for internal priority, the streamer has the runway to go all-in on a single prestige swing. And La bola negra fits a proven blueprint: a nearly three-hour, low-budget epic that captivated festival audiences—essentially The Brutalist playbook. With Hollywood faces who are no strangers to the campaign trail—Oscar winner Penélope Cruz and eight-time nominee Glenn Close anchoring the ensemble—I fully expect Netflix to push all its chips in on this film come fall.

Director: Javier Calvo, Javier Ambrossi
Writer: Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, Alberto Conejero
Cast: Guitarricadelafuente, Miguel Bernardeau, Penélope Cruz, Glenn Close
Major Fall Festivals: Telluride, TIFF
Release Date: October 16, 2026 (In Theaters) / December 2, 2026 (Netflix)
US Distributor: Netflix

5. Wild Horse Nine (Martin McDonagh)

The spotlight for Searchlight lands on Martin McDonagh, who is back this year with Wild Horse Nine. His last two films—2017's Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri and 2022's The Banshees of Inisherin—both took home the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture and Best Screenplay, along with the BAFTA for Best Original Screenplay, only to stumble at the last hurdle, walking away from the Oscars empty-handed both times. Now, with a world premiere at Venice followed by stops at Telluride, TIFF, and Austin's very own Fantastic Fest, McDonagh is hoping the third time's the charm and that Wild Horse Nine is finally the film to carry him across that elusive finish line.

According to Searchlight, Wild Horse Nine is set in the weeks leading up to the 1973 Chilean coup d'état, following two CIA agents (John Malkovich and Sam Rockwell), who are dispatched from Santiago to Easter Island. Stranded among the island's iconic Moai statues, the longtime partners are forced to confront their dark pasts and present conspiracies, with one of them forming a newfound bond with a pair of rebellious students that puts their whole operation at risk.

Wild Horse Nine is going to be the textbook definition of how a studio runs an Oscar campaign. Martin McDonagh is a seasoned veteran of this circuit, and neither of his leads is a stranger to the trail: Sam Rockwell already has a Best Supporting Actor win for McDonagh's own ThreeBillboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, while two-time nominee John Malkovich is drawing the best notices of his late career here, having taken the Volpi Cup for Best Actor at Venice and a Silver Medallion at Telluride. It also helps that Searchlight has room to concentrate, with only Tony Gilroy's Behemoth! looking like a comparable priority on its slate. The race is stacked in nearly every category this year, but McDonagh and his cast have never been better positioned to break the streak.

Director: Martin McDonagh
Writer: Martin McDonagh
Cast: John Malkovich, Sam Rockwell, Steve Buscemi, Tom Waits, Parker Posey
Major Fall Festivals: Venice (World Premiere), Telluride, TIFF
Release Date: November 6, 2026
US Distributor: Searchlight Pictures

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Obviously, it is hard to tell what will happen this year and what films will end up testing well or poorly, so it's important to pay attention to these five films, and many more, at this year's fall festivals to see how the Oscars race plays out. And hopefully this year, my picks end up a little more spot on than last year's!

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